The longest Formula 1 off-season for many years draws to a close. As a reward, race-starved fans will be treated to the most grands prix ever held in a single calendar year in 2023.
It all roars into life this weekend with the Bahrain Grand Prix – at the same venue where teams and drivers toiled for three straight days in the only pre-season test.The Bahrain International Circuit will hold the season-opening race for the third season in a row, before handing over to Jeddah next year. The last two encounters set the bar high.
Lewis Hamilton narrowly beat Max Verstappen in a thrilling start to 2021’s season-long grudge match between the pair. Last time Charles Leclerc denied the Red Bull driver, who then suffered a shock retirement in the closing laps.
Red Bull’s to lose?
Some teams have restructured their boardrooms this off season. Others have signed big name drivers to multi-million dollar contracts to inject a needed burst of energy into their team. But when you’re sitting at the very top of the sport, you know you do not need to change a single thing to enjoy more success.
That is the luxury that Red Bull enjoy as world champions. Still in the afterglow of their best season in history, the team could have easily lost focus, dropped their guard and found themselves sucker-punched by their rivals. But on the basis of testing, they may have found yet another gear over the winter.
Last season’s race was the second time in as many years Verstappen came off second-best in a scrap with his championship rival at this track. Indeed, this is one of only five circuits on the current calendar he is yet to win at. The odds are that will change in a few days time unless it turns out someone has a few tenths slashed up their sleeves – be that one of Red Bull’s nine rivals, or Sergio Perez.
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Are Aston Martin really that good?
Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari have seldom been displaced from the championship top three over the last decade, the rest left to fight between themselves in the mirrors of the ‘big three’.
Fernando Alonso’s latest – and, he expects, final – team that he hopes to build up into world championship contenders was supposed to be a long-term project, making a possible leap up from seventh in the championship to near the top of the midfield all the more encouraging for the double world champion. The first car designed under the watch of technical director Dan Fallows, the AMR23 has earned the praise of Fallows’ former boss at Red Bull, Christian Horner.
With Lance Stroll likely to miss the opening round as he heals his hands, Aston Martin are reliant on Alonso to give them their best start to a season in British Racing Green. But do not discount Felipe Drugovich from doing his part, having already covered over two race distances with the car and circuit that he will be making his debut.
Are McLaren really that bad?
This was supposed to be the year that McLaren picked up some real momentum. No more weak link in their driver line-up, no excuses not to fight for fourth place at the least.
No team spent more time in the garage during testing than McLaren. And when it did take to the track, the MCL60 hardly made headlines with its lap times. Rumours about Lando Norris’ display of frustration in the paddock only fuelled the hot takes and doomsayers on social media further.
McLaren have plenty of experience in starting seasons poorly, but last year showed they know how to make up for lost time. But, at least for now, it could be a challenging start to the season for Norris and rookie team mate Oscar Piastri.
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Welcome to the newcomers
For the first time since 2019, there could be as much as four rookies on the grid this weekend. At least three of them will be entering into their first full seasons as F1 drivers, while Drugovich may well be called upon to make a one-off cameo appearance.
De Vries does not consider himself a rookie, no matter what the record books will say, while Piastri will be desperate to show he has lost none of the speed that carried him to three successive single-seater titles in three years, becoming the hottest prospect since that fabled 2019 rookie class.
Sargeant has perhaps the least pressure to succeed on him than his two peers, yet as F1’s first American driver to start a season since 2007 at a time when the sport has never been more popular in the United States, he’ll likely feel the full weight of the stars and stripes on his helmet as he embarks on his grand prix debut.
Closer competition?
Track data: Bahrain International Circuit
| Lap length | 5.412km (3.363 miles) |
| Grand prix distance | 308.238km (191.53 miles) |
| Lap record (race) | 1’31.447 (Pedro de la Rosa, 2005) |
| Fastest lap (any session) | 1’27.264 (Lewis Hamilton, 2020, qualifying three) |
| Tyre compounds | C1, C2, C3 |
Last season saw a major revolution in F1’s technical regulations designed to improve racing. While the advent of ground effect allowed drivers to run closer than ever before in the modern era, it also appeared to create a two-tier championship, where 65 of the 66 podium positions were hoarded by the top three teams.
Last year, the entire field of 20 cars were separated by 2.37% in Q1 in Bahrain. That was closer than it had been during the final race weekend of the previous regulations, but not as competitive as many had hoped. But by the end of last season, in Abu Dhabi, the field spread in Q1 was just 1.53% – a sign that the grid had become more competitive as the year had gone by.
Many drivers and team personnel alike have expressed their hopes that consistency in the regulations for 2022 to 2023, coupled with the budget cap and aero testing limits, will only make the field more competitive this season. This weekend then becomes the first real indication of whether Formula 1 will see much closer competition this season.
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Nick T.
28th February 2023, 8:35
It’s going to take more than one season of the budget cap being in place for the midfield teams to bridge the gap. The longer we operate under this cap the smaller the margins will become.
One significant factor that will help the biggest teams stay ahead for awhile are the billions they spent upgrading their facilities before the budget cap was put into place. However, AMR also put in massive investment into all brand new facilities. Some of which are still in the process of being built.
alex
28th February 2023, 10:40
I think it’ll take an iteration of proper rules change under the budget cap to get the field closer. A lot of these cars were pretty much designed when the budget cap didn’t exist in any meaningful way and will carry this advantage forward until the rules change (see Mercedes 2014-2021)
Jere (@jerejj)
28th February 2023, 8:37
Red Bull’s to lose? – Yes.
Are Aston Martin really that good? – Probably not quite Ferrari or Mercedes good, but definitely top midfield.
Are McLaren really that bad? – Probably, yes.
Welcome to the newcomers – Indeed & while Sargeant has the least pressure, Piastri may have the most regardless of Mclaren’s competitive status, although they should be faster than AT & Williams.
Closer competition? – Hopefully.
Nick T.
28th February 2023, 8:43
I agree. Piastri has by far the most pressure on his shoulders.
Nick T.
28th February 2023, 8:40
For me the biggest question is whether F1 will continue to operate in the Mickey Mouse way they have been with VSCs, SCs and red flags for everything, including things like a broken down car that has pulled way off in the opposite direction of the line of fire or even behind a catch fence. That and waiting to start wet races until it’s dry.
There were a number of races last season that had more V/SCs in a single race than F1 had during entire five-year periods in F1 during the 2000s let alone the bad old days.
Nick T.
28th February 2023, 8:42
during five-year periods combined*
Jere (@jerejj)
28th February 2023, 12:36
@Nick T.
That was a pre-2022 thing with Masi, so inapplicable presently.
Last season didn’t feature SC, VSC, & especially red coming unnecessarily hastily anymore.
Therefore, as at least Wittich remains the RD for the new season, so will the approach remain unchanged.
Nick T.
1st March 2023, 21:37
Are you kidding? Last year was awful too in terms of VSCs and SCs.
G
28th February 2023, 9:47
There are a lot of assumptions being made over one test weekend at Bahrain.
If it was Catalunya, then maybe you could draw more conclusions but even then it would only tell you which cars got an early setup balance. A lot can change between now and Q3 on Saturday.
sumedh
28th February 2023, 10:03
Wow, didn’t realize that the spread had reduced from 2.37% in Bahrain to 1.53% in Abu Dhabi. Very encouraging.
IIRC, the 2012 seasons had such less gaps. Lets hope for another season like that
Christopher Rehn (@chrischrill)
28th February 2023, 11:50
I’m afraid Red Bull will pull away further. I refuse to believe Adrian Newey is simply that much smarter than the other 9 designers, so what is the secret sauce? It will be interesting to see just how dominant they are, I think we could be looking at a 2002-style destruction of the competition with the championship being decided as early as COTA or even Qatar.
Jere (@jerejj)
28th February 2023, 12:39
@chrischrill 2002, ’04, ’11, ’13 post-summer break, even ’19 & ’20, although the wind tunnel handicap will make total dominance harder to maintain throughout the season, so probably not as early as in Qatar or COTA unless Ferrari & Mercedes hand a considerably lead relatively early in the season.
Christopher Rehn (@chrischrill)
28th February 2023, 13:47
I definitely hope to be wrong, I’d love to see the Red and the Silvery-Black to duke it out with Red Bull. Definitely wouldn’t mind throwing Alonso into the mix as well! I just feel like this year is probably even more predetermined than perhaps the deepest darkest years of Mercedes dominance.
MattDS (@mattds)
28th February 2023, 12:45
For yourself, time 4 tenths of a second. Notice how short that time period is. Now relate that to two F1 cars lapping a 90-second circuit, one finishing 4 tenths ahead of the other. Take 6 tenths, or even a second.
A car lapping in 1:30 flat, the other in 1:30.4, another in 1:31 flat. The latter one is just about 1% slower. Now we perceive that as “a lot” slower as in F1 a second seems like an eternity, but when you look at it objectively 1% slower is not THAT much. It’s not like they are in different classes.
I’m not sure whether my point is that clear, I fear it isn’t. But what I want to say is that it’s fine margins and you don’t need to be “that much” better or smarther than all the rest, even the slowest team in F1 has created a damn fast car with not that much relative difference compared to the very fastest. It’s just that small things can make small differences which means a lot in F1.
slowmo (@slowmo)
28th February 2023, 12:43
Lets hope Mercedes and Ferrari have been keeping their powder dry in testing otherwise it’ll be a very dreary and boring season as Perez is incapable of challenging Verstappen.
Shimks (@shimks)
28th February 2023, 14:38
Amazing how ridiculously excited I get at this time of year! Can’t wait!!
Craig
28th February 2023, 19:14
If Red Bull run away with it it goes to show how much of advantage breaking the budget cap gave them. The prospect is why I’m not feeling all that excited for this year.
drmouse (@drmouse)
28th February 2023, 22:37
I’m actually quite glad AD2021 took the edge off my enthusiasm (to put it mildly). My predictions for this year would be much more upsetting to me if that hadn’t changed me from superfan to casually interested (in the racing, anyway, still very interested in the technical aspects).
MattDS (@mattds)
2nd March 2023, 10:56
That’s a weird position to take. So IF they run way with it it’s because they spent 0.4% over the cap? Your assumption is that it’s exactly that 0.4% in 2021 that is making the difference in 2023 between being dominant and not being dominant?
This exact lump of money allowed Newey to think of the best concept, and without it he would have thought of a far inferior concept?